Center for Adaptive Rationality
Publications 2020-2022/23

References accepted before 6 October 2023
For more recent publications, see the MPIB website (Publications & Resources)

Journal Article (56)

2023
Journal Article
The Forecasting Collaborative [Member of the MPIB: Anton Gollwitzer]. (2023). Insights into the accuracy of social scientists’ forecasts of societal change. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 484–501. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01517-1
Journal Article
Anvari, F., Efendić, E., Olsen, J., Arslan, R. C., Elson, M., & Schneider, I. K. (2023). Bias in self-reports: An initial elevation phenomenon. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 14(6), 727–737. https://doi.org/10.1177/19485506221129160
Journal Article
Appelhoff, S., Hertwig, R., & Spitzer, B. (2023). Control over sampling boosts numerical evidence processing in human decisions from experience. Cerebral Cortex, 33(1), 207–221. https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhac062
Journal Article
Ciranka, S., & Hertwig, R. (2023). Environmental statistics and experience shape risk-taking across adolescence. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 27(12), 1123–1134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2023.08.020
Journal Article
Claassen, M. A., Lomann, M., & Papies, E. K. (2023). Increased consumption despite fewer occasions: A longitudinal analysis of COVID-19 lockdown effects on soft drink consumption in England. Appetite, 187, Article 106579. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2023.106579
Journal Article
Dallacker, M., Knobl, V., Hertwig, R., & Mata, J. (2023). Effect of longer family meals on children's fruit and vegetable intake: A randomized clinical trial. JAMA Network Open, 6(4), Article e236331. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.6331
Journal Article
Engelmann, J. M., Haux, L. M., Völter, C., Schleihauf, H., Call, J., Rakoczy, H., & Herrmann, E. (2023). Do chimpanzees reason logically? [Registered Report]. Child Development, 94(5), 1102–1116. https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.13861
Journal Article
Ferreiro, D. N., Deroy, O., & Bahrami, B. (2023). Compromising improves forecasting. Royal Society Open Science, 10, Article 221216. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.221216
Journal Article
Fleur, D. S., van den Bos, W., & Bredeweg, B. (2023). Social comparison in learning analytics dashboard supporting motivation and academic achievement. Computers and Education Open, 4, Article 100130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.caeo.2023.100130
Journal Article
Geers, M. (2023). Linking lab and field research. Nature Reviews Psychology, 2, 458. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44159-023-00215-7
Journal Article
Giron, A. P., Ciranka, S., Schulz, E., van den Bos, W., Ruggeri, A., Meder, B., & Wu, C. M. (2023). Developmental changes in exploration resemble stochastic optimization. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 1955–1967. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-023-01662-1
Journal Article
Gradassi, A., Slagter, S. K., da Silva Pinho, A., Molleman, L., & van den Bos, W. (2023). Network distance and centrality shape social learning in the classroom. School Psychology, 38(2), 67–78. https://doi.org/10.1037/spq0000490
Journal Article
Groß, J., Kreis, B. K., Blank, H., & Pachur, T. (2023). Knowledge updating in real-world estimation: Connecting hindsight bias and seeding effects. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(11), 3167–3188. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001452
Journal Article
Grüning, D. J., Riedel, F., & Lorenz-Spreen, P. (2023). Directing smartphone use through the self-nudge app one sec. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(8), Article e2213114120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213114120
Journal Article
Hagura, N., Esmaily, J., & Bahrami, B. (2023). Does decision confidence reflect effort? PLoS ONE, 18(2), Article e0278617. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0278617
Journal Article
Hansen, M. J., Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Licht, M., Häge, J., Pacher, K., Dhellemmes, F., Trillmich, F., Elorriaga-Verplancken, F. R., & Krause, J. (2023). California sea lions interfere with striped marlin hunting behaviour in multi-species predator aggregations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: B, Biological Sciences, 378, Article 20220103. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0103
Journal Article
Haux, L. M., Engelmann, J. M., Arslan, R. C., Hertwig, R., & Herrmann, E. (2023). Chimpanzee and human risk preferences show key similarities. Psychological Science, 34(3), 358–369. https://doi.org/10.1177/09567976221140326
Journal Article
Hensums, M., Brummelman, E., Larsen, H., van den Bos, W., & Overbeek, G. (2023). Social goals and gains of adolescent bullying and aggression: A meta-analysis. Developmental Review, 68, Article 101073. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2023.101073
Journal Article
Hertwig, R. (2023). The citizen choice architect in an ultra-processed world. Behavioural Public Policy, 7(4), 906–913. https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2023.9
Journal Article
Hertwig, R. (2023). The real cause of our complicity: The preoccupation with human weakness. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 46, Article e161. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X23000936
Journal Article
Holford, D., Fasce, A., Tapper, K., Demko, M., Lewandowsky, S., Hahn, U., Abels, C. M., Al-Rawi, A., Alladin, S., Boender, T. S., Bruns, H., Fischer, H., Gilde, C., Hanel, P. H. P., Herzog, S. M., Kause, A., Lehmann, S., Nurse, M. S., Orr, C., Pescetelli, N., Petrescu, M., Sah, S., Schmid, P., Sirota, M., & Wulf, M. (2023). Science communication as a collective intelligence endeavor: A manifesto and examples for implementation. Science Communication, 45(4), 539–554. https://doi.org/10.1177/10755470231162634
Journal Article
Holmqvist, K., Örbom, S. L., Hooge, I. T. C., Niehorster, D. C., Alexander, R. G., Andersson, R., Benjamins, J. S., Blignaut, P., Brouwer, A.-M., Chuang, L. L., Dalrymple, K. A., Drieghe, D., Dunn, M. J., Ettinger, U., Fiedler, S., Foulsham, T., van der Geest, J. N., Hansen, D. W., Hutton, S. B., Kasneci, E., Kingstone, A., Knox, P. C., Kok, E. M., Lee, H., Lee, J. Y., Leppänen, J. M., Macknik, S., Majaranta, P., Martinez-Conde, S., Nuthmann, A., Nyström, M., Orquin, J. L., Otero-Millan, J., Park, S. Y., Popelka, S., Proudlock, F., Renkewitz, F., Roorda, A., Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M., Sharif, B., Shic, F., Shovman, M., Thomas, M. G., Venrooij, W., Zemblys, R., & Hessels, R. S. (2023). RETRACTED ARTICLE: Eye tracking: Empirical foundations for a minimal reporting guideline. Behavior Research Methods, 55, 364–416. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13428-021-01762-8
Journal Article
Kämmer, J. E., Choshen-Hillel, S., Müller-Trede, J., Black, S. L., & Weibler, J. (2023). A systematic review of empirical studies on advice-based decisions in behavioral and organizational research. Decision, 10(2), 107–137. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000199
Journal Article
Kämmer, J. E., Choshen-Hillel, S., Müller-Trede, J., Black, S. L., & Weibler, J. (2023). The methodology and theory of future research on advice-based decisions: Rejoinder. Decision, 10(2), 150–152. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000205
Journal Article
Kanngiesser, P., Serko, D., & Woike, J. K. (2023). Promises on the go: A field study on keeping one's word. Frontiers in Psychology, 14, Article 1097239. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1097239
Journal Article
Kilb, M., Giese, H., & Mata, J. (2023). How eating-related social media postings influence healthy eating in senders and network members: Two field experiments with intensive longitudinal data. Appetite, 182, Article 106430. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.appet.2022.106430
Journal Article
Kozyreva, A., Herzog, S. M., Lewandowsky, S., Hertwig, R., Lorenz-Spreen, P., Leiser, M., & Reifler, J. (2023). Resolving content moderation dilemmas between free speech and harmful misinformation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(7), Article e2210666120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2210666120
Journal Article
Kozyreva, A., Smillie, L., & Lewandowsky, S. (2023). Incorporating psychological science into policy making: The case of misinformation. European Psychologist, 28(3), 206–224. https://doi.org/10.1027/1016-9040/a000493
Journal Article
Kozyreva, A., Wineburg, S., Lewandowsky, S., & Hertwig, R. (2023). Critical ignoring as a core competence for digital citizens. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 32(1), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.1177/09637214221121570
Journal Article
Krekel, C., Swanke, S., De Neve, J.-E., & Fancourt, D. (2023). Happiness predicts compliance with preventive health behaviours during Covid‑19 lockdowns. Scientific Reports, 13, Article 7989. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-33136-9
Journal Article
Kuroda, K., Takahashi, M., & Kameda, T. (2023). Majority rule can help solve difficult tasks even when confident members opt out to serve individual interests. Scientific Reports, 13, Article 14836. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42080-7
Journal Article
Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Nuzzolese, A. G., Russo, A., Barabucci, G., Herzog, S. M., & Trianni, V. (2023). Automating hybrid collective intelligence in open-ended medical diagnostics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 120(34), Article e2221473120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2221473120
Journal Article
Lorenz-Spreen, P., Oswald, L., Lewandowsky, S., & Hertwig, R. (2023). A systematic review of worldwide causal and correlational evidence on digital media and democracy. Nature Human Behaviour, 7, 74–101. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01460-1
Journal Article
Näher, A.-F., Vorisek, C. N., Klopfenstein, S. A. I., Lehne, M., Thun, S., Alsalamah, S., Pujari, S., Heider, D., Ahrens, W., Pigeot, I., Marckmann, G., Jenny, M. A., Renard, B. Y., von Kleist, M., Wieler, L. H., Balzer, F., & Grabenhenrich, L. (2023). Secondary data for global health digitalisation. The Lancet Digital Health, 5(2), E93–E101. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2589-7500(22)00195-9
Journal Article
Ortmann, A., & Spiliopoulos, L. (2023). Ecological rationality and economics: Where the Twain shall meet. Synthese, 201, Article 135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-023-04136-z
Journal Article
Pedersen, M. K., Díaz, C. M. C., Wang, Q. J., Alba-Marrugo, M. A., Amidi, A., Basaiawmoit, R. V., Bergenholtz, C., Christiansen, M. H., Gajdacz, M., Hertwig, R., Ishkhanyan, B., Klyver, K., Ladegaard, N., Mathiasen, K., Parsons, C., Rafner, J., Villadsen, A. R., Wallentin, M., Zana, B., & Sherson, J. F. (2023). Measuring cognitive abilities in the wild: Validating a population-scale game-based cognitive assessment. Cognitive Science, 47(6), Article e13308. https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.13308
Journal Article
Pietraszewski, D. (2023). Seven grand challenges for evolutionary political psychology or: Political ideologies as ad-hoc alliances … so what? Psychological Inquiry, 34(3), 198–204. https://doi.org/10.1080/1047840X.2023.2274399
Journal Article
Rahwan, Z., & Leuker, C. (2023). When tainted money should fund public goods: Fundraising professional and public moral preferences. PNAS Nexus, 2(9), Article pgad285. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad285
Journal Article
Rapoport, A., Seale, D. A., & Spiliopoulos, L. (2023). Progressive stopping heuristics that excel in individual and competitive sequential search. Theory and Decision, 94, 135–165. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11238-022-09881-0
Journal Article
Ruel, A., Bolenz, F., Li, S.-C., Fischer, A., & Eppinger, B. (2023). Neural evidence for age-related deficits in the representation of state spaces. Cerebral Cortex, 33(5), 1768–1781. https://doi.org/10.1093/cercor/bhac171
Journal Article
Ryu, Y.-J., Olcaysoy Okten, I., Gollwitzer, A., & Oettingen, G. (2023). Intellectual humility predicts COVID-19 preventive practices through greater adoption of data-driven information and feelings of responsibility. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 17(8), Article 12766. https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12766
Journal Article
Sawicki, J., Berner, R., Loos, S. A. M., Anvari, M., Bader, R., Barfuss, W., Botta, N., Brede, N., Franović, I., Gauthier, D. J., Goldt, S., Hajizadeh, A., Hövel, P., Karin, O., Lorenz-Spreen, P., Miehl, C., Mölter, J., Olmi, S., Schöll, E., Seif, A., Tass, P. A., Volpe, G., Yanchuk, S., & Kurths, J. (2023). Perspectives on adaptive dynamical systems. Chaos, 33(7), Article 071501. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0147231
Journal Article
Schmauder, C., Karpus, J., Moll, M., Bahrami, B., & Deroy, O. (2023). Algorithmic nudging: The need for an interdisciplinary oversight. Topoi, 42, 799–807. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11245-023-09907-4
Journal Article
Shamsrizi, P., Jenny, M. A., Sprengholz, P., Geiger, M., Jäger, C. B., & Betsch, C. (2023). Heatwaves and their health risks: Knowledge, risk perceptions and behaviours of the German population in summer 2022. European Journal of Public Health, 33(5), 841–843. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckad109
Journal Article
Sibilsky, A., Colleran, H., Deffner, D., & Haun, D. B. M. (2023). Copying fideliy of functional and non-functional features in ni-Vanuatu children: A transmission chain study. PLoS ONE, 18(2), Article e0274061. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0274061
Journal Article
Slagter, S. K., van Duijvenvoorde, A. C. K., & van den Bos, W. (2023). Adolescents seek social information under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(3), 890–905. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001299
Journal Article
Smaldino, P. E., Pietraszewski, D., & Wertz, A. E. (2023). On the problems solved by cognitive processes. Cognitive Science, 47(6), Article e13297. https://doi.org/10.1111/cogs.13297
Journal Article
Spiliopoulos, L., & Hertwig, R. (2023). Variance, skewness and multiple outcomes in described and experienced prospects: Can one descriptive model capture it all? Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 152(4), 1188–1222. https://doi.org/10.1037/xge0001323
Journal Article
Sultan, M., Scholz, C., & van den Bos, W. (2023). Leaving traces behind: Using social media digital trace data to study adolescent wellbeing. Computers in Human Behavior Reports, 10, Article 100281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chbr.2023.100281
Journal Article
Waters, E. A., Pachur, T., Pogge, G., Hunleth, J., Webster, G. D., & Shepperd, J. A. (2023). Linking cognitive and affective heuristic cues to interpersonal risk perceptions and behavior. Risk Analysis, 43(12), 2610–2630. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.14101
Journal Article
Wegwarth, O. (2023). Die Kommunikation von Risiken in der Onkologie. Die Onkologie, 29, 976–983. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00761-023-01399-6
Journal Article
Wegwarth, O., Mansmann, U., Zepp, F., Lühmann, D., Hertwig, R., & Scherer, M. (2023). Vaccination intention following receipt of vaccine information through interactive simulation vs text among COVID-19 vaccine-hesitant adults during the Omicron wave in Germany. JAMA Network Open, 6(2), Article e2256208. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.56208
Journal Article
Wegwarth, O., & Scherer, M. (2023). COVID-19-Impfzögerlichkeit: Interaktive Simulationen vs. textbasierte Informationen bei der Risikovermittlung. Zeitschrift für Allgemeinmedizin, 99, 233–234. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44266-023-00086-4
COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: Comparing interactive simulations to text-based information in risk communication.
Journal Article
Wilhelm, E., Ballalai, I., Belanger, M.-E., Benjamin, P., Bertrand-Ferrandis, C., Bezbaruah, S., Briand, S., Brooks, I., Bruns, R., Bucci, L. M., Calleja, N., Chiou, H., Devaria, A., Dini, L., D'Souza, H., Dunn, A. G., Eichstaedt, J., Evers, S., Gobat, N., Gissler, M., Gonzales, I. C., Gruzd, A., Hess, S., Ishizumi, A., John, O., Joshi, A., Kaluza, B., Khamis, N., Kosinska, M., Kulkarni, S., Lingri, D., Ludolph, R., Mackey, T., Mandić-Rajčević, S., Menczer, F., Mudaliar, V., Murthy, S., Nazakat, S., Nguyen, T., Nilsen, J., Pallari, E., Pasternak Taschner, N., Petelos, E., Prinstein, M. J., Roozenbeek, J., Schneider, A., Srinivasan, V., Stevanović, A., Strahwald, B., Abdul, S. S., Varaidzo, S. M., van der Linden, S., Voegeli, C., Wardle, C., Wegwarth, O., White, B. K., Willie, E., Yau, B., & Purnat, T. D. (2023). Measuring the burden of infodemics: Summary of the methods and results of the Fifth WHO Infodemic Management Conference. JMIR Infodemiology, 3, Article e44207. https://doi.org/10.2196/44207
Journal Article
Woike, J. K., Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (2023). Heterogeneity of rules in Bayesian reasoning: A toolbox analysis. Cognitive Psychology, 143, Article 101564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cogpsych.2023.101564
Journal Article
Zilker, V., & Pachur, T. (2023). Attribute attention and option attention in risky choice. Cognition, 236, Article 105441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105441

Book Chapter (3)

2023
Book Chapter
Lein, I., & Jenny, M. A. (2023). Communicating health statistics effectively: The power of icon arrays and natural frequency trees. In A. M. Hartkopf & E. Henning (Eds.), Handbook of mathematical science communication (pp. 267–281). World Scientific. https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811253072_0015
Book Chapter
Pachur, T., & Schulze, C. (2023). Heuristic social sampling. In K. Fiedler, P. Juslin, & J. Denrell (Eds.), Sampling in judgment and decision making (pp. 359–384). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009002042.021
Book Chapter
Pleskac, T. J., & Hertwig, R. (2023). In decisions from experience what you see is up to your sampling of the world. In K. Fiedler, P. Juslin, & J. Denrell (Eds.), Sampling in judgment and decision making (pp. 66–89). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009002042.004

Conference Paper (1)

2023
Conference Paper
Trianni, V., Nuzzolese, A. G., Porciello, J., Kurvers, R. H. J. M., Herzog, S. M., Barabucci, G., Berditchevskaia, A., & Fung, F. (2023). Hybrid collective intelligence for decision support in complex open-ended domains. In P. Lukowicz, S. Mayer, J. Koch, J. Shawe-Taylor, & I. Tiddi (Eds.), HHAI 2023: Augmenting Human Intellect. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Hybrid Human-Artificial Intelligence (pp. 124–137). IOS Press. https://doi.org/10.3233/FAIA230079

Thesis - PhD (1)

2023
Thesis - PhD
Thoma, A. I. (2023). The development of probability learning and repeated choice behavior in childhood: An ecological and longitudinal perspective [PhD Thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin]. https://doi.org/10.18452/27220
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